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A True Test of AI’s Predictive Power
Only recently has it become axiomatic that AI will transform the fields of health and science, business and finance, and even outer space travel. And yet some question—as I do—whether AI can assist in solving some of the most pressing challenges facing our times, such as settling long-standing debates among baseball savants over which records are likely to stand the test of time.
With baseball season well underway, I thought it would be interesting to see whether Google and/or ChatGPT could tell us whether the all-time record of 309 triples held by Samuel Earl Crawford, aka Wahoo Sam, the Detroit Tiger Hall of Famer, is likely to remain enshrined in the record books. I have long believed this achievement will never be eclipsed. Just to be sure, I asked Google and ChatGPT: “Is Sam Crawford’s MLB record for triples likely to be broken?”
Google’s AI generated results begin with the conclusion that Crawford’s record is “virtually unbreakable,” citing modern baseball’s emphasis on home runs and doubles, the fact that during Crawford’s time outfielders played shallower, and that ball parks were often larger. That modern ballparks are smaller than those of the early 1900s surprised me, but consider that the distance from home plate to dead center in the Polo Grounds was 483 feet. This compares to Coors Field, the home of the Colorado Rockies, where the distance from home plate to dead center is 415 feet—the longest among current day MLB ballparks. To bolster its argument, Google cites several sources, including Bleacher Report, Wikipedia, The Baseball Scholar, as well as discussion groups on Quora, among others. An optional deeper dive into Google’s Gemini AI reveals that in 1920 the rate of triples per game was 0.51, versus .16 in 2019. Thus, Google is not only gathering facts, but applying logic and reasoning to its conclusion.
In response to the question at hand, ChatGPT responded: “probably not.” In doing so, it cites the fact that modern ballparks are smaller and more uniform, making it difficult to hit balls into gaps. In addition, advanced defensive positioning strategies give outfielders the ability to guard against extra base hits. This makes sense to me, as it is difficult to imagine either Sam Crawford or teammate Ty Cobb carrying a “cheat sheet” inside their baseball caps to prevent Nap Lajoie from turning a double into a triple. ChatGPT points out that in order for Crawford’s record to be broken, a player would need to hit roughly 20 triples per season for 15 years, citing ESPN and Guinness World Records as sources for these insights, which I found to be particularly compelling.
While noting many of the factors that make it exceedingly difficult to break Crawford’s record, I was, nonetheless, intrigued by ChatGPT’s more tentative conclusion. This seems to be traceable to the recent performance of Corbin Carroll, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ twenty-five year-old outfielder, who in less than four full seasons has already racked up 53 triples, and is on track to lead the National League in the category for the fourth consecutive year. Assuming Carroll finishes this season with 58 triples, it would take an average of 16 triples per year over the next sixteen seasons to exceed Crawford’s total. You can judge for yourself whether this is in the realm of the possible, or whether Carroll has not a prayer to break the record.
Overall, I was impressed by the ability of modern-day AI tools to bolster their arguments by drawing on authoritative sources, as well as applying reasoning and logic to their arguments. I am also impressed by ChatGPT’s ability to adapt to changing dynamics by acknowledging that a player of Carroll’s caliber has at least the potential to challenge the record. I can now better understand the excitement and allure around AI, and its promise for answering some of the more crucial questions and lingering debates among avid baseball fans.
What Berkshire County Can Teach Us about EV Adoption
Lithium battery powered cars were first sold in the U.S. in 2008, roughly 110 years after their gas-powered predecessors debuted on American roads.
Located at the western edge of Massachusetts, Berkshire County is today, as it has always been, a popular place to spend the summer. Banded by Williamstown in the north and Sheffield in the south, the region’s farm and conservation lands conjure up a bygone era, even as the appearance of modern cars and trucks on its roads reminds us of the here and now.
Not surprisingly, I’ve noticed firsthand that electric vehicles from Tesla, Ford, Rivian, and others have crept their way into the Berkshire countryside. EVs currently account for less than seven percent of new car purchases in the U.S.—up from just 2% in 2020. But, thus far, they are embraced primarily by early adopters like those in the Berkshires.
As it turns out, this trend was also true of the Berkshires in the early years of the first automobile revolution. More than 230 manufacturers—including Knox Automobile, Stevens-Duryea, the Packard Motor Company, Olds Motor Works, the Henry Ford Company, and Mercedes Simplex—tested their autos on the roads of Berkshire County in the first 15 years of the 1900s, according to historian Bernard A. Drew. In his insightful study of the early automobile industry, Well Wheeled: How Cortlandt Field Bishop, Marguerite Westinghouse, Alden Sampson II and Gilded Age Lenox Cottagers Fueled the Brass Era of American Automobiling, Drew, himself a Berkshire resident, reaches back in time to the turn of the 20th century, when the barriers to enter the car business were much lower than they are today. Small teams of talented engineers brought their early prototypes to the road, and the well-to-do assumed the risk of patronizing their efforts.
During that period, many of the well-heeled luminaries of the Gilded Age, such as the Sloanes, Morgans, Whartons, and Vanderbilts, spent their summers in the county. Unconstrained by speed limits and licenses, these early auto enthusiasts provide a glimpse into the challenge of moving the first fleet of automobiles into the mainstream.
Edith Wharton, who was among the most successful authors of the era and a Berkshire aristocrat, was also fascinated by the automobile. While taking a break from writing the next chapter of The Age of Innocence, or pondering the plot line for Ethan Frome, she could be seen behind the wheel of her single-cylinder, 10 horsepower 1904 Pope-Hartford, her 24-horsepower Panhard, or one of her many other cars. But she lamented their lack of reliability and her frequent visits to the local mechanic. “One set out on a 10-mile run with more apprehension than would now attend a journey across Africa,” she observed. There was, however, an “inexhaustible delight in penetrating to the remoter parts of Massachusetts” from behind the wheel.
It wasn’t until Ford launched the Model T in 1908 that the automobile became easier to operate—it introduced a simpler 2-speed manual gearbox—and became affordable for many, thanks to mass production. Model T annual sales increased from 10,000 in its debut year to more than 300,000 by 1914.
As was the case during the first automobile revolution, early EV models from Tesla, Porsche, and BMW were typically priced in excess of $80,000, and embraced primarily by well-heeled auto enthusiasts. But in just 15 years, the market is already entering its Model T era: EVs have begun to close the price gap with gas-powered cars. According to Cox Automotive the average EV is priced at $6,200 above the average price of a gasoline powered car. The gap would be considerably narrower, but for the cancellation of EV tax credits enacted under the Affordable Care Act.
Undeniably, more is needed to appeal to those still reluctant to take the EV plunge. Faster charging, greater availability of public charging stations, longer driving range, better cold weather performance, as well as even more affordable models will help to close the gap. Advances in autonomous driving will also give EVs another leg up over gas-powered cars.
While the Model T revolutionized personal transportation in the U.S., the horse and buggy was still a common mode of transportation through the Great Depression, particularly in rural areas. It took roughly 30 years after their commercial debut for autos to become ubiquitous on American roadways.
The U.S. is less than two decades into the EV revolution. There is still plenty of time for EVs to mature and demonstrate their advantages over the internal combustion engine created more than one hundred years ago.
Please note that an earlier version of this Op-Ed, written by Ben Z. Rose, president of Battle Road Research, appeared in Barron’s.
IMAGE CREDIT: ILLUSTRATION BY BARRON’S; GETTY (1), DREAMSTIME (1)
Electric Vehicles: an Industry Still in its Infancy
The electric vehicle (EV) market is still in its early stage of adoption. Cars manufactured with internal combustion engines, drawing on an approach pioneered over 140 years ago by Karl Benz, continue to dominate the world’s highways and byways. And Yet, virtually every automotive manufacturer in the world is pursuing a variety of strategies to address the market, in an effort to embrace new technology, meet consumer demand, as well as comply with government regulators, who –for the most part—continue to pressure the industry to achieve better mileage standards, and reduce carbon emissions.
What began as a trickle with a lone, two-seat sports car introduced by Tesla Motors in 2006, EVs have become the fastest growing segment of the global transportation industry. Legacy manufacturers of internal combustion engine cars and trucks including General Motors, Ford Motor Company, Stellantis, Mazda, Porsche and many others, including Toyota, Nissan, and Volvo, are collectively plowing billions of dollars into research, development, and new factories to create the next generation of EV cars and trucks.
China is by far and away the largest producer and consumer of EVs, with more than eleven million EVs sold each year. EVs now account for more than 50 percent of all cars sold in the country. In Europe, EVs account for roughly 20 percent of all new car sales. In the United States, EV sales account for less than ten percent of all light vehicles sold in the U.S. The abrupt cancellation of federal EV tax credits implemented through the Inflation Reduction Act has reduced the incentive to purchase EVs, amid a last-ditch effort to save the internal combustion engine from extinction.
Despite a significant reduction in the investment in new factories and models by many global manufacturers, demand for EVs continues, as many consumers are taking the opportunity to embrace new technology, enjoy the quiet ride which most EVs provide, reduce out of pocket maintenance costs, as well as reduce carbon emissions, thus helping to save the environment for future generations. Survey after survey of EV owners in the U.S. confirm that —with few exceptions—they are unlikely ever again to purchase a gasoline-powered car.
Today, there are over 100 EV models for sale in the U.S., and yet Tesla continues to dominate the market with only three distinct models, the Model Y Crossover/small SUV, Model 3 sedan, and the Cybertruck, a next generation space-age pick-up truck. Tesla’s market share of more than 45 percent of all new EVs sold in the U.S. is more than three times that of GM, its closest competitor, a company which has dramatically scaled back its EV investments.
In the meantime, the emergence of more affordable models as well as a relatively new thriving market for used EVs promises to spur wider adoption I n the U.S. and other regions throughout the world.
The Cybertruck’s Future Is Brighter Than You Think
Tesla unveiled its cheapest Cybertruck in April. The Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive Cybertruck costs
roughly $70,000 and has a 350-mile range, compared to the previous model’s 250 mile
range.
Tesla unveiled its cheapest Cybertruck in April. The Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive Cybertruck costs roughly $70,000 and has a 350-mile range, compared to the previous model’s 250 mile range. (CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
While running errands in suburban Boston recently, I spotted two Cybertrucks
within the space of just a few minutes. The first was painted white, emblazoned
with American flags. The other was the now-familiar matte-finished, stainless
steel model, which I have begun to see on a regular basis. It occurred to me then
what I see now in the data: Rumors of the Cybertruck’s demise may be
premature.
With the launch of the Cybertruck in late 2023, Tesla aimed to gain a foothold in
the U.S. pickup truck market—which sells nearly three million units annually.
Unlike any of the full-size pickup trucks available from Ford, General Motors,
and Stellantis, which dominate the gasoline-powered U.S. pickup truck market,
the Cybertruck is, in the words of the announcer on Monty Python, something
completely different. Its angular, futuristic aesthetic is a blend of Bauhaus and
Blade Runner. Its early adopters are auto-enthusiasts, enthralled by the truck’s
unique—if for some—polarizing appearance.
When Tesla entered the electric vehicle truck market, the water had already been
warmed by Rivian. Its R1T won Motor Trend’s 2022 Truck of the Year. Ford’s F150 Lightning received the same award the following year.
Sales of EV pickup trucks have been modest. Earlier this year, Ford announced it had sold 33,510 Ford F-150 Lightning EVs in 2024, an increase of 39% from the
previous year. Rivian doesn’t publish unit sales by model, but my firm, Battle Road Research, estimates it sold roughly 12,000 R1Ts in 2024, likely flat with
2023. Tesla, for its part, doesn’t reveal sales by model. But it reported that its “Other Models” category, which includes the Cybertruck, Model S, Model X, and
the Tesla Semi, accounted for 85,133 units delivered in 2024. Cox Automotive estimates nearly 39,000 Cybertrucks were sold last year.
If that number is correct, then for all of the negative press and criticism of its design and reliability, the Cybertruck became the category leader in its first full
year of availability. We now estimate Tesla’s share at 36% of a 108,000-unit market in the U.S. Ford’s F-150 Lightning follows with 31% market share.
Tesla CybertruckFord F-150 LightningGMC Hummer EVRivian R1TChevrolet Silverado EVOther0k51015202530354045
The road to leadership has been rocky for Tesla. The Cybertruck has had its share of recalls—though a recall isn’t the headache it was in the pre-EV era, when every
issue required a trip to the dealership. Like Apple, Tesla has been able to address many of its flaws through over-the-air software updates, such as enlarging the
font size of its instrument panel so that braking and parking indicators could be seen. Flaws in the rearview camera’s display and in the warning light for the tire
pressure monitoring system were also fixed with software updates. Some physical recalls have been required to fix things like a trapped foot pedal
that caused unintended acceleration. Of course, the Ford F-150 Lightning and the Rivian R1T have also had their share of physical recalls.
The Cybertruck will now have to face-off with the venerable GM, another newcomer to the EV pickup market. GM is taking a portfolio approach, with three
different EV pickup models: the GMC Hummer EV (available as an SUV or pickup truck), the Sierra EV, and the Chevrolet Silverado EV.
But GM, like Ford, has much to lose by entering the EV market. It has roughly 40% of the conventional pickup truck market. Ford, which dominated the pickup
truck market for nearly a half-century, now has 32% of the market, with 765,649 F-series units sold in 2024. So there may be little or no incentive for them to
cannibalize the sales of their gas-powered pickups, particularly since those tend to be their most profitable models. This may be why both GM and Ford
are pouring cold water on the idea that EVs will one day soon overtake gaspowered engines. All indications are that Tesla will remain committed to the category. This year,
Tesla started offering a long-range rear wheel drive version of the Cybertruck priced at $70,000, which makes it the first model to qualify for the full Inflation
Reduction Act’s $7,500 EV tax credit. Previously, only the Ford F-150 Lightning and Chevy Silverado qualified for the full credit.
Tesla will likely remain one of the category’s volume leaders. Cox Automotive estimates that in the first quarter of 2025, Cybertruck registrations totaled 7,126, just behind Ford’s F-150 Lightning sales of 7,913.
If Tesla wants to gain more market share, it will need to get down the cost curve with a reasonable price for the Cybertruck. At some point, though probably not
for at least a couple of years, another incarnation of the Cybertruck will breach the $50,000 price level. There is precedent for this type of price and performance
improvement in Tesla’s product line: The Model 3 is a more affordable version of the Model S, and the Model Y is a dramatically lower-priced version of the Model
X.
So don’t be surprised if in the next few years Tesla unveils a Cybertruck successor—smaller, fleeter, and faster.
Is Waymo the Way to Go?
By Eve Regina Rose
June 9, 2025
What shocked me most about my maiden voyage in a driverless car took place long
after the ride. Not during it.
I don’t mean that nothing about my eight Waymo trips around San Francisco took me off
guard. The steering wheel moved back and forth, which looks creepy when there isn’t a
pair of hands to control it. Ghostlike is not a good look.
Nor do I mean to imply that I never got nervous. When our Waymo pulled around a car
that was double parked and squeezed past an oncoming BMW, we screamed quite
loudly. But Waymo handled it with Finesse. Even if we didn’t.
Other than that, it was pure pleasure. No tips, no talking. I hate chit chat and often
forget to tip with Uber and Lyft. The electric car was quiet, clean and I could even curate
the music on a screen (‘60s Classics as we cruised through Haight Ashbury…Mellow
jazz after a late night).
The car arrived exceedingly fast. It picks you up from where you call it unless it’s too
dangerous. When we ordered a Waymo in the middle of a crowd that had spilled onto
the street, Waymo steered clear, parking across from us where it was safer.
It had a fun factor I didn’t expect. It was like going on a ride at Disney World. Or starring
in my own Sci-Fi movie. I couldn’t wait to order the next one.
The real shocker came later when I learned just how many people didn’t share my
enthusiasm:
“I would never go in one of those.”
“Not enough testing for me.”
“Really? You’re crazy.”
Believe me, I am no daredevil. Some might even call me a control freak. But I was
never really scared, especially after the first ride. If anything, the car relaxed me. Better
to rely on a machine than a tired or distracted human (I’ve never been fond of the
ridesharing companies’ untrained amateurs).
Will this fear I encountered from dozens of people be a roadblock for Waymo in the
future?
My hunch is that like any new technology (early car makers were called imbeciles after
all), people will get more comfortable with time and exposure. Waymo just completed its
10 millionth paid ride so clearly some people are already there.
However, the safer these city trials go, the better. People – at least the ones I know –
will still need some persuading.
About the Author: A graduate of the Northwestern University’s Medill School of
Journalism, and the Vermont College of Fine Arts, Eve Regina Rose, a guest
contributor, is an award-winning business journalist. She’s covered everything from the
technology sector to International trade.
Tim Cook to Donald Trump: You Were Serious About That?
Apple CEO Tim Cook’s response to President Donald Trump’s made-in-America push calls to mind a scene in the movie My Cousin Vinny. Vincent Gambini (played by Joe Pesci), a novice defense attorney, is scolded by Judge Chamberlain Haller (Fred Gwynne) for showing up in his Alabama courtroom without a suit and tie, with the judge taking particular offense to Gambini’s long leather jacket. When Gambini returns to the courtroom for his next appearance he is dressed the same way, but this time the judge holds him in contempt of court. Gambini, in disbelief, says to the judge: “You were serious about that?”
EV Charging May Be Coming to a Gas Station Near You
Of the many concerns that keep car buyers from taking the plunge into EV ownership, access to fast, on-the-road charging remains at the top of the list. While Tesla has largely solved this problem through its fast charger network, the other 50 percent of EV owners in the U.S. must resort to a hodgepodge of charging pumps, many of which are unreliable, inconveniently located, and take too long to charge.
To be sure, the problem is at least partially solved for some EV owners, who can charge their car overnight in their own garage. Yet the problem remains for EV owners that live in townhomes, condominiums, and apartments, without a dedicated garage.
Nouria, a chain of combination gas stations and convenience stores, which operates in more than 180 locations throughout the Northeast, has taken steps to solve the problem. In addition to the typical array of beef jerky sticks available at most gas stations, Nouria goes several steps further, providing an eclectic mix of merchandise, including stuffed animals, Ashton Churchill cigars, healthy snacks, and of course, potato chips and candy bars. As an added convenience, a Dunkin’ Donuts concession provides chocolate glazed, jelly, and butternut donuts, along with blueberry munchkins.
Its filling station in Framingham Massachusetts, located twenty miles from Boston as the crow flies, provides five stalls with two pumps on each side, where up to ten drivers can fill their gas tanks at once. In an accessible area adjacent to the filling pumps reside two ChargePoint Level 3 EV chargers, ready to provide a relatively quick electron boost. Over time, as I’ve routinely stopped for a Dunkin’ butternut donut, I’ve seen Rivian R1Ts, Volkswagen ID.4s, a few Hyundai Ioniq 5s, a couple of Honda Prologues, and several Ford Mustang Mach-Es take their turns in the charging bays.
Recently, I chatted with a couple who were on their way back to their home in Western Massachusetts. They were happy to have found the Nouria station on their Rivian app, which enabled them to charge their R1T pickup truck in something like 20 minutes, though I don’t recall how much range they had left on their battery before stopping at the station. And they didn’t have to drive far out of their way to find it, as the Framingham location is close to the Massachusetts Turnpike entrance. For what it’s worth, they were so enthusiastic about their Rivian that they volunteered to show me the ample trunk space under the front hood, where the engine normally sits in a gas powered pickup truck.
Gas nozzles outweigh EV chargers by a ratio of 5:1 at this particular filling station, yet while on a recent stop, I saw just two cars filling up for gas, while both chargers were occupied. As I washed down my Dunkin munchkin with a swig of coffee, I thought: could this be a glimpse into the future?
Less than two percent of all cars in Massachusetts are EVs, but EVs now account for 12 percent of all new cars purchased in the state, according to the Alliance for Automotive Information. Nouria has placed a bet that the numbers will rise, and perhaps over time more EV chargers will be added to more of its locations. In the meantime it will be interesting to see if others in the convenience store and gas station business begin to add EV chargers. The pace of EV adoption and demand for charging services will no doubt dictate the decision.
Why Zero Trust is Gaining Traction
By Jonathan Rowe, Research Analyst
Cyber breaches come in all shapes and sizes, and no organization is immune – including the United States military. On April 13th 2023, Jack Teixeira, a 21 year old Airman in the 102nd Intelligence Wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard on Cape Cod, was arrested by the FBI at his parents’ home in Dighton, Massachusetts. Teixeira was charged with two crimes: violating the Espionage Act of 1917 by retaining and transmitting national defense information without authorization; and unauthorized removal of classified information. Specifically, Teixeira allegedly obtained classified information and uploaded it to an online Discord chat group known as “Thug Shaker Central” which is believed to have held 20-to-50 members.
This classified information was posted in the form of transcripts Teixeira read aloud, copied notes, and included screenshots of classified documents. These classified documents included highly sensitive details, such as the United States’ plans for potential scenarios in the Russian war on Ukraine, names of informants and spies, military strategy, and other data that US prosecutors allege would have been of “tremendous value to hostile nation states”. The leak is thought to be the most significant security breach in the United States since over 700,000 sensitive materials were published on WikiLeaks in 2010.
The Teixeira incident sparked an inside review of the military’s approach to cybersecurity. On December 11th, the Air Force disciplined 15 members of its ranks relating to the Teixeira incident. This discipline spanned from personnel being removed from their positions – including command positions – to non-judicial punishments. Furthermore, Air Force personnel close to Teixeira knew about up to four separate occasions of him exhibiting questionable behavior prior to the leaks, and a small number of people “intentionally failed to report the full details of these security concerns/incidents.”
Even before the Air Force’s disciplinary action was publicized in December, what quickly became apparent after the breach was that Teixeira, himself, had little need to possess access to classified information. Moreover, he essentially worked in the IT department of the National Guard, but not with or related to the sensitive information in the systems with which he worked. Although focused on IT issues, technically his role was as a member of cyber defense operations. This highlighted an overall security flaw in the US military, where it is commonplace for low-level personnel, including technology workers, to have access to classified information.
The incident prompted the Air Force to conduct “a security-focused stand down to reassess [its] security posture and procedures, validate the need to know for each person’s access, and emphasize to all Airmen and Guardians the responsibility [they] are entrusted with to safeguard this information and to enforce and improve our security requirements.”
The Teixeira incident and the Air Force’s subsequent review of its security requirements invokes the concept of zero-trust security that is growing in popularity across organizations of all sectors. Zero-trust security is the idea that companies need to be on guard for external cyberthreats, in addition to having robust internal security policies and arrangements. In large organizations like the Air Force, there are a plethora of people with potential access to sensitive information. With a zero-trust security stance, organizations consider how to assign and prioritize security clearance to their own employees; in organizations with a zero-trust security model, employees are granted access to critical information only on a need-to-know basis. While organizations generally trust their employees, they must operate under the assumption that they cannot trust their most important information with anyone and everyone within a company. Following the Jack Teixeira episode and the Air Force’s related internal review, it is likely that the Air Force will adopt a zero-trust security clearance model within its own ranks, ensuring that vital information does not fall into the wrong hands again in the future.
The Cure for EV Range Anxiety Is Coming
By Ben Z. Rose
Dec 27, 2023, 2:00 am EST
Of all the obstacles to broader adoption of electric vehicles, the lack of publicly available car chargers is the one cited most frequently. If we are to believe industry pundits, traditional car drivers are scared to death of buying an EV for fear of draining the battery and getting stuck on the side of the road of some backwoods hamlet, or worse, getting ensnared in city traffic. The fear of an empty battery has led to a condition commonly referred to as range anxiety. And it persists, despite the industry’s best efforts to treat it.
Great strides have been made to extend EV battery life in the last few years. It’s unusual today for an EV to have a charging range of less than 250 miles, with 300 miles or more increasingly common. This is farther than many cars and pickup trucks can drive on a single tank of gas. Moreover, the number of publicly available charging stations is rising, with the ratio of EVs to charging ports falling rapidly. Even fast chargers are now rising as a portion of charger infrastructure. Fast chargers are like highway gas stations for EVs—they let drivers pull in and quickly refill most of their charge.
In Massachusetts, for example, EVs make up about 1% of all registered light vehicles. The state has one fast charger for every 75 EVs, while the ratio of registered light vehicles to gasoline pumps is one to 196 (assuming 10 pumps per gas station). And more innovations are in the works: Members of AAA can now obtain roadside EV charging services in 15 cities around the U.S., including West Springfield, Mass.
Yet there remain real reasons to worry about taking an EV out on a road trip. First of all, the number of fast chargers is greatly skewed in favor of urban, versus rural areas. Most charging stations have only one or two charging ports, and since even fast charging can take 15-45 minutes depending on the battery, lines can form quickly. That can get stressful when many charging facilities are unmanned and fully self-service. By contrast, there is hardly ever a line at the local gas station, or at a Cumberland Farms, which may have as many as 16 pumps working at once. It’s also nice to know that if you have a problem with your credit card, there’s a person on premise in the form of a cashier or attendant that can resolve it. Being able to buy a bag of peanuts, a cup of coffee, or use the restroom, is of course a bonus.
This stands in contrast to many EV chargers, which have difficulty reading a credit card. This assumes that the charger is in working order when you reach it. Far too many are not. And getting to one is not an easy feat either, especially when it’s located away from a main highway, tucked away in the back of a motel, school, or even a shopping center. Tesla drivers have it easier, with access to a more-reliable, national network. But drivers of EVs from one of the automakers also need to worry whether their EV will work with the available charger’s plug. No one ever needs to worry about whether a gasoline pump will fit into their tank.
Fortunately, help is on the way. Tesla’s clever decision to open a portion of its fast charger network (and thus defray the costs of operating it) to other manufacturers, including GM, Ford, Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Honda Motor, BMW, Toyota, Rivian Automotive, and several others, will help to alleviate the problem. Tesla has also made its charging standard available to charger manufacturers. This could both increase the availability and reliability of chargers, in much the same way that Microsoft’s decision to open up its Windows user interface to other software makers made it easier to write software for a larger audience.
Indeed, the time will come—perhaps only in a few years—when EV Range Anxiety can not only be treated, but cured. Until that day arrives, those still on the fence about buying an EV can focus on other pet peeves, such as the still-high unsubsidized price of most EVs, the poor performance of in-car electronics, fear of losing battery life in cold weather, and, for some models, the high cost of repairs.
Guest commentaries like this one are written by authors outside the Barron’s and MarketWatch newsroom. They reflect the perspective and opinions of the authors. Submit commentary proposals and other feedback to ideas@barrons.com.
Bauhaus Meets Blade Runner: Tesla’s New Cybertruck
Arriving in time for the end of tailgating season, the Cybertruck, with its futuristic—if controversial—angular design, will certainly be a head-turner as deliveries begin. Originally unveiled in 2019 as a bullet-proof prototype that was not bullet-proof, the Cybertruck’s unique design aesthetic is a blend of Bauhaus and Blade Runner. The sports car-like pickup truck presents myriad manufacturing and component sourcing challenges, as stainless steel is difficult to form, bend, cut and weld. It is also difficult to maintain a uniform appearance. According to an internal email written by Tesla CEO Elon Musk in August of this year, “all part dimensions need to be to the third decimal place in millimeters and tolerances need to be specified in single digit microns.” As if to downplay this lofty objective, Musk went on to write, “If LEGO and soda cans, which are very low cost, can do this, so can we.”
Like the original Ford Model T, the Cybertruck is available in just one color: in this case, unpainted stainless steel. Unlike any of the full-size pickup trucks available from Ford, GM, and Stellantis, which dominate the 2.5 million unit market in the U.S., the Cybertruck is, in the words of the announcer on Monty Python, something completely different.
First off, the Cybertruck looks like something that would be lowered from the Lunar Module to collect rocks on the moon, rather than a run-of-the-mill pickup truck that will haul and tow cargo for tradesmen. It remains unclear how resistant the car body will be to dings, scratches and outright dents, but we do know that ultra-hard stainless steel is difficult to repair, treat and restore to its original finish. This makes it impractical for hauling and towing construction equipment, as well as collecting moon rocks. And yet the Cybertruck is remarkably competitive with other EV pickup trucks on the market in terms of brute strength: it boasts a maximum tow capacity of 11,000 pounds, while its 2,500 pound maximum payload is almost 50 percent greater than the Rivian R1T, and a bit more than the Ford F-150 Lightning.
An important unresolved question is whether the Cybertruck will appeal to the sub-segment of the pickup truck market that is already purchasing an electric truck. If so, the numbers are not very encouraging. Of the projected 2.46 million pickup trucks that will be purchased in the U.S. this year, less than two percent, or something like 35,000 units will be either Ford F-150 Lightning or Rivian R1Ts.
Rivian has, in fact, seen its product mix shift heavily in favor of its full-size electric SUV, while Ford has announced plans to reduce its EV pickup truck volume for 2024, while also having vowed to double the number of Ford F-150 hybrid engine vehicles it intends to sell next year. All of this suggests that there may be less enthusiasm about EVs among both traditional and non-traditional buyers of pickup trucks.
Getting down the cost curve with a reasonable price for the Cybertruck will be key for Tesla to penetrate the market. Though the first wave of users is unlikely to be tradespeople, there is no reason that subsequent waves couldn’t be, given the truck’s towing and payload capacity, which is sure to improve over time. We are sure that Cybertruck version 5.0 will be quite different from previous versions.
Put differently, the more affordable Cybertruck becomes the bigger the market. At some point, though not today, the well-defined size of the pickup truck market will become relevant when the Cybertruck can breach the $50,000 or less entry level price point. Then the Cybertruck will be able to lay claim to its five-to-ten percent or more market share of the 2.5 million unit U.S. pickup truck market, which would equate to 125,000 to 250,000 annual units or more. Now it is only a question of time.